Will Ritter September 12, 2018
POOLHOUSE & Cygnal Release Part Two of State-Wide Poll

September 12th, 2018
Contact: Will Ritter

With the countdown to November’s general election drawing near, POOLHOUSE and Cygnal teamed up together to take a look at some of the top issues in the upcoming midterms in Virginia.

This is the 2nd release on this poll, the first release focused on the Senate race, generic ballot and President Trump’s approval.

This release covers topics including Trump’s effect on congressional ballots in Virginia, the popularity of Governor Ralph Northam’s tax plan, the abolishment of ICE, sanctuary cities, and relations with Russia. Additionally, we surveyed the effectiveness of different political advertising tactics as campaigns race to get their messages out before November 6th.

It’s not all politics in Virginia, though. We also asked these likely VA voters to answer questions about the popularity of state-controlled liquor sales (ABC) and paying National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) athletes. We interviewed 1,199 likely voters in Virginia and had a margin of error of ±2.83%.

Key Findings:

Bullet-Point Analysis:

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Methodology Statement:

This probabilistic registration-based phone survey was conducted from August 22 – 24, 2018 with 1,199 responses from likely November 2018 general election voters. It has a margin of error of ±2.83%. The margin of error for subgroups may be greater due to limited sample size. Interviewers were conducted using interactive voice response (IVR) to landline phones, allowing any registered voter within the household to complete the survey. All data was collected, processed, and weighted by Cygnal and its affiliate data collection partners.

The partisan makeup of the sample is based on previous midterm election participation and confirmed by voter response on the survey. Respondents were asked “Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, Republican, or Independent?” The collected sample consists of:

Republican       30%
Independent    38%
Democrat         31%  

An alternate “low-Republican” turnout model was created by weighting the partisan composition of the sample to mirror other publicly released surveys. The partisan makeup of this model consists of:

Republican       24%
Independent    40%
Democrat         29%  

The landline sample was stratified based on past participation and current voter registration within the commonwealth of Virginia. Cygnal used statistical weighting procedures to correct sample deviations from known voter characteristics, including: age, gender, ethnicity, and DMA.